Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

877
FXUS64 KHGX 151836
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
136 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Hot weather continues today with similar conditions to that of
yesterday. 500mb Heights are on the rise as the center of a midlevel
high shifts over the western Gulf of America. A 850mb low/trough
pushing eastward has tightened the pressure gradient thus
strengthening the LLJ to 30-45 knots. While 850mb temperatures are a
tad weaker than the day before, the strengthened LLJ should amplify
WAA, with the HREF showing temp advection reaching upwards of 1.0-
3.0 K/hr at times on the higher end of the distribution, though
notably less potent than previously forecast. HREF and CAMs continue
to show lackluster mixing in spite of the strong winds in the lower
levels. It`ll remain to be seen, though I wouldn`t be surprised if
we saw dewpoints drop into the upper 60s in some locations. Taking
account for all these factors, in addition to greater cloud cover,
the heat should be tolerable enough, such that to avoid the need for
a Heat Advisory today. Experimental Heat Risk has been calculated to
be Moderate to Major (3/5 - 4/5), though given the aforementioned
meteorological conditions, this level of heat will mainly affect
individuals more sensitive to heat. WBGT heat stress will peak at
Moderate to High (3/5 - 4/5) this afternoon. Overall similar to
yesterday, though broadly favoring a lesser heat risk, thus will
continue to hold of on a Heat Advisory.

Friday rolls around with broadly the same pattern, but a few
important differences. 500mb heights across the Gulf of America and
surrounding coastlines should continue to creep upwards. The
northern shift of the western trough axis should slowly weaken the
pressure gradient, causing the LLJ to weaken from 30-40 knots to as
low as 20 knots in the afternoon. This means winds won`t be as gusty
as Thursday, though still sufficient to make the heat more
tolerable. Subsequently, WAA is also reduced to 0.5-1.5 K/hr,
limiting the added heating from advection. ECMWF EFI for MaxT ranges
form 0.5-0.95 with NAEFS 850mb temps only above the 90th percentile.
850mb temps are also low than past days in the CAMs too. Once again,
models are pessimistic on the extend of mixing during the afternoon,
showing fairly high dewpoints in the uppers 60s/70s. Taking a brief
detour from talking heat, a frontal boundary/dry line may push into
the vicinity of the Brazos Valley Friday afternoon, which could
initiate some isolated thunderstorms across our northern counties.
While only select CAMs show this (Fv3), it`s still be worth
maintaining some light PoPs. Back to heat, Heat Risk is still
forecasted too be Moderate to Major (3/5 - 4/5) with WBGT heat
stress reaching Moderate (3/5) at least in the afternoon. With
similar meteorological conditions, this level of heat should
primarily affect groups more sensitive to heat.

If you plan to spend an extended amount of time outdoors, be sure
to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to prevail across Southeast
TX through the next several days as a mid-level high pressure
meanders over the Gulf.

Mid-level heights in the 587-590 dam range will prevail this
weekend, along with hot conditions and high temperatures remaining
in the mid to upper 90s for most locations north of I-10, the low to
mid 90s for locations south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower 90s
along the coasts. To give you another perspective, these
temperatures are roughly between 5-11 deg above average for this
time of the year.

Aside from the highs, we will need to keep in mind the added effect
of winds and moisture. South to southeasterly flow will continue to
supply warm moist air from the Gulf this weekend while a weak
boundary stalls over Central TX. This will lead to moisture
converging over our area and increasing PWs into the 1.6" to 1.8"
range. As a consequence, conditions will feel much warmer. The
current forecast carries Heat Indices between 100-107 deg F inland.
Now...the boundary stalling over Central TX may also lead to a
tighter pressure gradient over our area, and thus, slightly stronger
winds along the surface. This could bring a little relief to some,
however, heat impacts will remain to be a concern.

Keeping in mind that many are not yet acclimated to these
conditions, there is the possibility of heat related headlines
and/or a Heat Advisory for portions of Southeast TX during weekend.
Make the proper preparations to keep yourself, your family, and pets
safe from heat related impacts, including limiting outdoor work and
activities, taking frequent breaks in the shade or a room with AC,
stay hydrated, and limit sun exposure. Be aware of heat related
illnesses and be ready to act quickly if symptoms arise.

By early next week, a mid-upper level trough will move across the
Southern Plains and some locations could see high temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler - closer to the low to mid 90s range -
although a few spots may still see highs in the upper 90s (in
particular over the Brazos Valley region). An associated weak cold
front looks to stall over Central TX again, leading to another rise
in PWs (ranging between 1.7" to 2.0"). Although the front will not
make it into Southeast TX, it will at least tighten the local
pressure gradient. This could then lead to stronger surface winds on
Monday and Tuesday, roughly 15-20 mph, which may subside some of our
heat impacts. The Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region also have a
chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and can briefly
provide slightly cooler conditions for a few areas. Regardless, it
is recommended to remain alert and prepared for any heat impacts for
the next several days.

Cotto - 24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds are expected this
afternoon. Wind gusts ease off this evening as daytime heating
wanes. MVFR CIGS slowly build in from the coast tonight, lowing to
IFR levels in areas mostly south of I-10 heading into Friday
morning. CIGs improve and gusty winds resume mid/late Friday
morning after sunrise.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

With a surface high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf, south
to southeast winds will continue through most of the period. Winds
are expected to weaken the rest of this afternoon and evening,
falling below advisory levels. However, seas offshore will still be
into the 6 to 7 ft range, occasionally higher through early this
evening. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7PM CDT. Light
to moderate onshore winds will prevail at least through next
Wednesday. Winds and seas could reach advisory levels at times early
next week. Overall, dry and warm weather will prevail within the
next 7 days.

Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are
expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result
in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through
early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along
all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend.

JM

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected
over the upcoming week, here`s a look at the daily high temperature
records through Tuesday (May 20th).

May 15th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978)
- Palacios: 93F (1943)
- Galveston: 89F (2022)

May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)

May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  75  96  76 /   0   0  20   0
Houston (IAH)  96  77  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  77  86  77 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
     335-350-355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
     through Friday morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cotto /24/
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM